Dozens of online polls seem to indicate Ron Paul as the candidate who would win the GOP nomination today. Contrary to this, major media outlets tell viewers the front runner is Herman Cain and make an occasional nod to Mitt Romney. With such disparate information, individuals may wonder if there is a way to tell with 100 percent accuracy who would win.

Most information seems to indicate the winner as of today would be Herman Cain. The fact that Ron Paul performs exceedingly well in online polling may be due to self-selection bias in poll sampling. The bulk of Ron Paul supporters are very active online, while Cain supporters are less so. Cain performs very close to Paul in most online polling attempts, and carries greater weight in polls for registered Republicans via telephone. The online polls showing Paul in the lead include statistics from those who will vote in the Republican primaries as well as many who may not.

It is important to note that statistics fluctuate daily, and both Cain and Romney have seen quite a falling off in recent weeks. As both Cain and Paul gather additional endorsements, the race is shaping up to be between the two. The “Black This Out” campaign effort by Ron Paul has gained great momentum among people of all backgrounds. If those people get out to vote, they may provide an unexpected tipping point in the primary elections.

Although it is impossible to state with 100 percent accuracy who the GOP nominee would be if the votes were tallied today, all polling efforts indicate it would be Cain or Paul. Which candidate you go with seems to be up to personal view point and whether you get your polling information online or through nightly news from any of the major outlets.

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Posted by Derrick on November 1st, 2011 :: Filed under Politics
Tags :: gop nomination, gop nominee, occasional nod, republican primaries

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